# Research

- Josh Marshall on the difference between close and uncertainWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Online activities 4 – 10 NovemberEuropean Set Theory Society
- Edison M. MurairinLab
- Letter to a Jewish voter in PennsylvaniaShtetl-Optimized
- Top 14 Predictions for Round 10Stats Chat
- Polarities (Part 2)Azimuth
- Interpreting recent Iowa election poll using a rough Bayesian partition of errorStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Some highlights from FOCS11011110
- the world needs a US president who respects evidence [says Nature]Xi'an's Og
- Should pollsters preregister their design, data collection, and analyses?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- A new Mersenne Prime Has Been Found. When will we find the next one?Computational Complexity
- Xpress and RStudioOR in an OB World
- Violent science teacher makes ridiculously unsupported research claims, gets treated by legislatures/courts/media as expert on the effects of homeschoolingStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Differential Logic • 4Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Why forecast an election that’s too close to call?Xi'an's Og
- RM309, Ottobre 2024, è in lineaMaddmaths!
- Steven Rudich (1961-2024)Shtetl-Optimized
- Summer Research at the Topos InstituteThe n-Category Café
- off to MontpellierXi'an's Og
- Podcast about GrothendieckHydrobates
- A 10% swing in win probability corresponds (approximately) to a 0.4% swing in predicted voteStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Climbing the cosmic distance ladder: launching an instagramWhat's new
- Climbing the cosmic distance ladder: launching an instagramWhat's new
- Differential Logic • 3Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Giving a good mathematics talkPersiflage
- Rivoluzioni Matematiche: il teorema minmax di von Neumann di Roberto LucchettiMaddmaths!
- Polarities (Part 1)Azimuth
- hell on earth [UNICEF call]Xi'an's Og
- Floating point: Everything old is new againJohn D. Cook
- Calibration is sometimes sufficient for trusting predictions. What does this tell us when human experts use model predictions?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Axiomatic Set Theory 7: Number SystemsThe n-Category Café
- “Trivia question for you. I kept temperature records for 100 days one year in Boston, starting August 15th (day “0”). What would you guess is the correlation between day# and temp? r=???”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Twelve years ago on the blog -- the war on data still seems pretty relevantWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Projet “NERDY”Jérôme Buzzi’s
- LESET Meeting in ValparaisoJérôme Buzzi’s
- Hadamard Scholarships (Master and PhD track)Jérôme Buzzi’s
- Una chiacchierata sulla topologia: 8 – E quindi a che serve la topologia?Maddmaths!
- Carnival of Mathematics #233Math ∩ Programming
- I Problemi di LeScienze – Ottobre 2024 – Giardino OssimoricoMaddmaths!
- Bradwardine’s RuleAzimuth
- the polls weren’t wrong [book review]Xi'an's Og
- Differential Logic • 2Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Halloween linkage11011110
- Stan Playground: Run Stan on the web, play with your program and data at will, and no need to download anything on your computerStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- KTI70: Conference to celebrate the 70th anniversary of the Institute of EconomicsAlgorithmics, Social choice, Market Design, and Other Topics
- How hard is constraint programming?John D. Cook
- Martians and Metadata -- a Halloween themed repostWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Macchina di Boltzmann: risponde Pierluigi ContucciMaddmaths!
- How This Blog Does IndieWebMath ∩ Programming
- Adjoint School 2025The n-Category Café
- Adjoint School 2025Azimuth
- believe him!Xi'an's Og
- StanCon 2024 Oxford: recorded talks are now released!Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Differential Logic • 1Inquiry Into Inquiry
- the vote by the Knesset against UNRWA is a disgrace and a scandalXi'an's Og
- FOCS 2024Computational Complexity
- Leave-one-out cross validation (LOO) for an astronomy problemStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Design Tip: Color Coded Motion GraphsMegan Hayes-Golding
- Introducing the Shafer Algorithm for Covering Journalists' Ethical LapsesWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Picturing the skiesThe Renaissance Mathematicus
- Triangulations of the Sphere (Part 2)Azimuth
- 2025 Computational Methods in Bayesian Statistics [plus ‘gators]Xi'an's Og
- Triangulations of the Sphere (Part 2)The n-Category Café
- The math behind voting by mailPunk Rock Operations Research
- What makes an MCMC sampler GPU-friendly?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Set Theory in the United Kingdom 14, Cambridge, 18 NovemberEuropean Set Theory Society
- “Ramified” means that around the point in question the projection map has the same behaviour as does…isomorphismes
- Test functions and [tempered] distributions require the notion of topological vector space ……isomorphismes
- Props to the liberal anticommunists of the 1930s-1950sStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Michael C. Bender is basically a Theodore H. White A.I.West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- L’IA ha difficoltà con problemi di matematica delle elementariMaddmaths!
- Excursion 1 Tour II (4th stop): The Law of Likelihood and Error Statistics (1.4)Error Statistics Philosophy
- A question for Nate Cohn at the New York Times regarding a claim about adjusting polls using recalled past voteStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- 45ième Marseille-Cassis [1:25:15, 698/19799, 4/598 M5M, 330m⁺, 17⁰-20⁰]Xi'an's Og
- Online activities 28 October – 3 NovemberEuropean Set Theory Society
- United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 7Stats Chat
- Top 14 Predictions for Round 9Stats Chat
- Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 7Stats Chat
- 2-adic numbering for binary tilings11011110
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 7Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Freakonomics does it again (not in a good way). Jeez, these guys are credulous:Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Band-limited expansionJohn D. Cook
- 10 years ago at the blog – – this one's gotten more relevant along at least a couple of dimensionsWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Archimede 3/2024: speciale frattaliMaddmaths!
- Panel Discussion Questions from my Neyman Lecture: “Severity as a basic concept in philosophy of statistics”Error Statistics Philosophy
- Sculpting quantum steampunkQuantum Frontiers
- NYT catches up to Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- OWAB [season] IXi'an's Og
- Random Thoughts on the ElectionComputational Complexity
- “Reduce likelihood of a tick bite by 73.6 times”? Forking paths on the Appalachian Trail.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Axiomatic Set Theory 6: GluingThe n-Category Café
- This one might possibly be interesting.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Delay differential equationsJohn D. Cook
- Comics&Science Palace 2024: scienza + intrattenimento a LuccaMaddmaths!
- Un nuovo, gigantesco, numero primo di Mersenne!Maddmaths!
- More neurons in the hidden layer than predictive features in neural netsFreakonometrics
- Triangulations of the Sphere (Part 1)The n-Category Café
- Triangulations of the Sphere (Part 1)Azimuth
- Laplace transform inversion theoremsJohn D. Cook
- Mellin transform and Riemann zetaJohn D. Cook
- 39th Annual Meeting of the Canadian Econometrics Study Group (CESG), in TorontoFreakonometrics
- Prediction markets and the need for “dumb money” as well as “smart money”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- More MortWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Al Festival della Scienza a Genova la duplice sfida delle donne matematicheMaddmaths!
- Flatiron Institute hiring: postdocs, joint faculty, and permanent research positionsStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Postdoc opportunity! to work with me here at Columbia! on Bayesian workflow! for contamination models! With some wonderful collaborators!!Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Risques, nouveau numéro (139)Freakonometrics
- A traditional Republican's case against DobbsWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Geometric model of particles: a didactical approachDoc Madhattan
- Sawtooth wavesJohn D. Cook
- Moving to Utrecht UniversityPieter Belmans
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 6Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Family Feud vs PointlessComputational Complexity
- Which book should you read first, Active Statistics or Regression and Other Stories?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Abortion -- Secondary and Tertiary EffectsWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- From τὰ φυσικά (ta physika) to physics – XXXIIThe Renaissance Mathematicus
- Response to Ben Recht’s post (“What is Statistics’ Purpose?”) on my Neyman seminar (ii)Error Statistics Philosophy
- ChatGPT o1-preview can code StanStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Pioneering work is uglyJohn D. Cook
- 3M misconduct regarding knowledge of “forever chemicals”: As is so often the case, the problem was in open sight for a long time before anything was doneStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Ten years ago at the blog -- turns out this wasn't nearly the stupidest thing Marc Andreessen was saying.West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- 6th Hausdorff Medal 2024European Set Theory Society
- United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6Stats Chat
- Top 14 Predictions for Round 8Stats Chat
- Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 6Stats Chat
- Bunnings NPC Predictions for the FinalStats Chat
- Octoberfest 2024The n-Category Café
- New Mersenne prime foundJohn D. Cook
- Supporting Bayesian modeling workflows with iterative filtering for multiverse analysisStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- The MAGA and the Gender Gap Thread -- Mister Robinson's NeighborhoodWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Mid-Atlantic Mathematical Logic Seminar, Rutgers 1 – 3 NovemberEuropean Set Theory Society
- Online activities 21 – 27 OctoberEuropean Set Theory Society
- Contrast an Episode of Columbo with the recent Nobel PrizesComputational Complexity
- Octoberfest 2024Azimuth
- What is the purpose of a methods section?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- The Helgö TreasureAzimuth
- Channel capacity of a telegraphJohn D. Cook
- IMS Program “Algorithmics of Fair Division and Social Choice”Turing's Invisible Hand
- Carroll/Langer: Credulous, scientist-as-hero reporting from a podcaster who should know betterStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- The m=√p rule for random forestsFreakonometrics
- My podcast with Brian GreeneShtetl-Optimized
- Axiomatic Set Theory 5: RelationsThe n-Category Café
- “It’s a very short jump from believing kale smoothies are a cure for cancer to denying the Holocaust happened.”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- The Arthurian LegendPersiflage
- RFK jr. went from one end of the political spectrum to the other. That was a bit of a family tradition.West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Columbia Surgery Prof Fake Data Update . . . (yes, he’s still being promoted on the university webpage)Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- CASdatasets 1.2.0Freakonometrics
- Splines for graph drawing theory11011110
- Squares, triangles, and octalJohn D. Cook
- Associahedra in Quantum Field TheoryThe n-Category Café
- Basic probability in MathlibLean community blog
- Different perspectives on the claims in the paper, The Colonial Origins of Comparative DevelopmentStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- New group Blog: randomstrasse101Relax and Conquer
- Does a mechanical Turk bartender count?West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Excursion 1 Tour I (3rd stop): The Current State of Play in Statistical Foundations: A View From a Hot-Air Balloon (1.3)Error Statistics Philosophy
- RNG, PRNG, CSPRNGJohn D. Cook
- Triangle circle maximization problemJohn D. Cook
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 5Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Computing and the NobelsComputational Complexity
- Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for Goodwin GM, Aaronson ST, Alvarez O, et al. Single-Dose Psilocybin for a Treatment-Resistant Episode of Major Depression. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2206443.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Here is the Data Sharing Statement, in its entirety, for van Dyck CH, Swanson CJ, Aisen P, et al. Trial of Lecanemab in Early Alzheimer’s Disease. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2212948.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Known for his improvisational departures, Donald Trump has long been the Keith Jarrett of American fascism.West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Correction: Vienna Set Theory Seminar, tomorrow 11:30European Set Theory Society
- Leeds set theory seminar resumes todayEuropean Set Theory Society
- The first English CopernicanThe Renaissance Mathematicus
- Relating six properties of a triangle in one equationJohn D. Cook
- LWE Attack Benchmarking ProjectMath ∩ Programming
- Linkage11011110
- Categorial progress …Logic Matters
- Preprocessing text to make it more compressibleJohn D. Cook
- “the Yang-Mills equations are nonlinear, therefore there is little hope of finding a closed-form…isomorphismes
- “Things are Getting So Politically Polarized We Can’t Measure How Politically Polarized Things are Getting”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Troll on Troll Violence -- the unprecedented political logic of 2024West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- My answer on Quora: Can I forget a topic in mathematics even after doing large amounts of practice?Mathematics under the Microscope
- United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 5Stats Chat
- Top 14 Predictions for Round 7Stats Chat
- “Pitfalls of Demographic Forecasts of US Elections”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 4Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Protecting the narrative -- the NYT and AbortionWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- A Trip Down Memory Lane: Desc comp, Constant Round Sorting, Division Breakthrough, Derandomization.Computational Complexity
- Determinateness of truth does not come for free from determinateness of objects, Singapore, November 2024Joel David Hamkins
- My Nutty, Extremist BeliefsShtetl-Optimized
- The covering reflection theorem, Madison Logic Seminar, October 2024Joel David Hamkins
- Online activities 14 – 20 OctoberEuropean Set Theory Society
- Why does FM sound better than AM?John D. Cook
- Shifted reciprocalJohn D. Cook
- Where have all the count words gone? In defense of “fewer” and “among”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 3Inquiry Into Inquiry
- Hadamard knew in 1898 that negative curvature and simply connectedness for surfaces embedded in…isomorphismes
- She wants to know what are best practices on flagging bad responses and cleaning survey data and detecting bad responses. Any suggestions from the tidyverse or crunch.io?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Excursion 1 Tour I (2nd Stop): Probabilism, Performance, and Probativeness (1.2)Error Statistics Philosophy
- The equational theories project: a brief tourWhat's new
- The equational theories project: a brief tourWhat's new
- 20-year anniversary of this blogStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Information = Comprehension × Extension • Comment 2Inquiry Into Inquiry
- How to Go Beyond the Coldness of Numbers and Take Action?Freakonometrics
- Comment dépasser la froideur des chiffres, et agir ?Freakonometrics
- Calculating an LOOCV MSE by handFreakonometrics
- The comments section: A request to non-commenters, occasional commenters, and frequent commentersStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Post-Calibration Techniques: Balancing Calibration and Score Distribution AlignmentFreakonometrics
- Triangles to TrianglesJohn D. Cook
- The interactions paradox in statisticsStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Perspective causale sur les discriminations directes et indirectes liées aux caractéristiques sensibles dans les modèles prédictifs en assuranceFreakonometrics
- The best debate analysis I've seen so farWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Axiomatic Set Theory 4: SubsetsThe n-Category Café
- New paper: Central curves on noncommutative surfacesPieter Belmans
- Computational complexities of folding11011110
- Update on that politically-loaded paper published in Demography that I characterized as a “hack job”: Further post-publication reviewStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Sane-wash, Repeat, Repeat -- The Procrustean Era of the New York TimesWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Golden ellipseJohn D. Cook
- 2-Rigs and the Splitting PrincipleThe n-Category Café
- Two kings, a royal, a knight, and three princesses walk into a bar (Nobel prize edition)Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Areal coordinates and ellipse areaJohn D. Cook
- Modern Methods in Moduli: a workshop in LuxembourgPieter Belmans
- Inaccuracy in New York magazine report on election forecastingStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- “Responsibility for Raw Data”: “Failure to retain data for some reasonable length of time following publication would produce notoriety equal to the notoriety attained by publishing inaccurate results. A possibly more effective means of controlling quality of publication would be to institute a system of quality control whereby random samples of raw data from submitted journal articles would be requested by editors and scrutinized for accuracy and the appropriateness of the analysis performed.”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Average number of divisorsJohn D. Cook
- Fall Jobs Post 2024Computational Complexity
- If the really wanted to debunk Trump's lies about killing babies, they probably should have made a bigger deal of it when Carly Fiorina said themWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- From τὰ φυσικά (ta physika) to physics – XXXIThe Renaissance Mathematicus
- On the Nature of TimeStephen Wolfram Writings
- Defining statistical models in JAX?Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- A quick simulation to demonstrate the wild variability of p-valuesStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Honesty and transparency are not enough: politics editionStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- KTI70: CONFERENCE TO CELEBRATE THE 70TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE INSTITUTE OF ECONOMICSAlgorithmics, Social choice, Market Design, and Other Topics
- Lucas numbers and Lucas pseudoprimesJohn D. Cook
- By the very definition of the word, disinformation is not something that just happens. Someone has to deliberately lie to create it.West Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- “Tough choices in election forecasting: All the things that can go wrong” (my webinar this Friday 11am with the Washington Statistical Society)Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- My October 7 postShtetl-Optimized
- Trip to the USHydrobates
- Some references and discussions on the foundations of probability—not the math so much as its connection to the real world, including the claim that “Pr(aliens exist on Neptune that can rap battle) = .137”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Keeping the pair or going for the inside straightWest Coast Stat Views (on Observational Epidemiology and more)
- Book note: Kunen, Foundations of MathematicsLogic Matters
- Emil Post Anticipated (more than anticipated) Godel and TuringComputational Complexity
- Dov Gabbay Prize 2024European Set Theory Society
- A half-flipped binary tiling11011110
- Salesses: “some writing exercises meant to help students with various elements of craft”Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- Quantum advantage for NP approximation? For REAL this time?Shtetl-Optimized
- eLife press release: Deterministic thinking led to a nonsensical statementStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- On de Swart’s Philosophical and Mathematical LogicLogic Matters
- Axiomatic Set Theory 3: The Axioms, Part TwoThe n-Category Café
- Basu’s Bears (Fat Bear Week and survey calibration)Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
- 22 Revision Prompts from Matthew SalessesStatistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science